Friday, April 19th, 2019

Stake right, lose less win more

May 4, 2010 by  
Filed under Money Management

Every punter has differing opinions about staking when betting on horses; it is a very controversial subject. There are nearly as many types of staking plans as there are betting systems. Unfortunately there are plenty of staking plans being heralded as miracle methods that can turn loses into profits and grow your betting bank considerably over a short period of time. In this article we`ll look at various staking plans  give you an over  view.

Loss recovery / Stop at a winner “Backing  Systems”

On certain methods the math’s appears to work out up on paper, but unfortunately that’s where they should stay. In the real world loss recovery plans can be horrendous to operate, because all betting is pattern based, never static. These patterns do not follow a predefined path of consistency before betting activity commences. In simple terms users of loss recovery staking plans such as, S.A.W. (Stop At A winner) are chasing loses, which is something that should be avoided at all costs. Regardless of what any one else is saying.

No staking plan can turn a loss into profit on a long term basis, no matter how good in principle it looks. Plans of this nature fail when applied to a series of bets for many reasons, such as…

  • The method is used in conjunction with a poor selection process. (Based around flimsy, static rules that only take minutes to implement)
  • The odds of the winners or losers don’t fail in relation to the betting cycles (Stakes increase very rapidly)
  • Betting can become an emotional roller coaster that is very unpredictable. Therefore the user of such a method is betting in constant fear, and totally out of their comfort zone.

You will experience all this and more using a loss recovery system, even if you are very selective with your bets. I fail to see how anyone can bet confidently in the knowledge that one big losing run could wipe their betting bank. You may be making money for weeks or even months. But sooner or later, a losing run will come along and wipe you out.

Be wary of any system that use’s any of these staking plans,

  • Cover to win;
  • Stop at a winner;

Or any similar combination of the two

What to get involved with

When backing horses you have plenty choices. It all really depends on which types of systems you operate and how much risk you are prepared to take, for example…

High strike rate – Low odds.

Usually this is the case when backing favourites in non handicap races. Although there are plenty of winners around (1 in 3) restricted odds mean limited profits, if any at all. Your very minimum bet should be 2.00 on these kinds of wagers. Anything below that is just not worth the effort.

Low strike rate – High odds.

This situation arises when backing outsiders. It is possible to make some half decent profits if you are able to select the right horses. Unfortunately losing runs can be long and very few punters have the patience to wait for the bigger priced winners. Using a selection method that selects medium priced horses maybe the answer to this problem, however even then losing runs are assured.

Possible solutions

Use selection systems creatively. Develop your own staking methods, possible suggestions…

  • Trade short priced favourites that are likely to steam (Create a no lose position, or hedge your bets for an equal profit, win or lose)
  • Back medium priced favourites that are inform and have conditions to suit in their current races.

Trading small profits can eliminate the random nature of betting patterns. But you must be prepared to put in some effort to identify the right selections. And be able to assess which way the market is market is moving on Betfair.

What to get involved with

When laying horses you have plenty of choices. It all really depends on which types of systems you operate, for example…

When laying horses you are mainly paying out more than you are wagering most of the time. This is the complete reverse to backing horses. While this may sound obvious many punters have difficulty with the associated math’s and struggle to handle any kind of losing sequence. It suffices to say if you don’t take the time to learn the basic principles loses can be assured.

High strike rate – Large odds

Usually this is the case when laying outsiders on the exchanges. Unfortunately for layers, Betfair offer up to 20% better odds on outsiders so you are obtaining bad value lay bets. You could literally get dozens of successful lays in a row, only to be wiped out by couple of losers at the wrong odds. It’s a case of taking 10 steps forward 15 back. In my opinion you should never lay anything above a maximum of 4.7 (7/2) Risk verses reward principles, really do apply here. Don’t be afraid to ask for a better price than that on offer, you’ll be surprised how often you get matched , the key is just be realistic with you offers.

Low strike rate – Low odds.

This situation arises when laying short priced favourites. It is possible to make some half decent profits if you are able to select the right horses. Unfortunately you can encounter several consecutive winners. So although the risks are manageable your betting activity is likely to see saw and be rather annoying. Using a selection method that selects, low to medium priced favourites maybe the answer to this problem.

Possible solutions

Use selection systems creatively. Develop your own staking methods, possible suggestions…

  • Lay trade short priced favourites that are likely to steam (Create a no lose position, or hedge your bets for an equal profit, win or lose)

Mix it up

  • Lay short to medium priced favourites to win only
  • Lay short to medium priced favourites to place
  • Lay two horses in one race for a combined maximum liability

Here are two common staking methods for laying…

Laying To Win A Point

If you’re starting bank is £500 divided into 100 points, and your maximum lay price is 2/1. Each lay will be to win £5. If the horses loses you win £4.75 less 5% commission, if the horse wins you would lose a straight £10.

Laying To Risk A Point

If you’re starting bank is £500 divided into 100 points, and your maximum lay price is 2/1. Each lay will be risking one point with a maximum liability of 2/1 – 3.00 which = £5.00. So at 3.00 each stake would be £2.50. Anything below 3.00 and the stakes can increase marginally without risking going above your £5 maximum liability. Use Belfair’s onscreen profit and loss functions to display the associated math’s. That way you’ll know in advance what your exposure is.

 

Level stakes

Are probably the safest and easiest to operate when betting because there isn’t much danger of losing your betting bank just as long as you are sensible.

Level staking /fixed bank Staking works by divided the betting bank up into a number of points (one point) being an individual bet. It’s best to change stakes periodically after a series of bets (e.g. 30-50) Examine your betting bank and assess if stakes should be marginally increased in line with any profits, decrease or remain the same.

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

Digiprove sealCopyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess

About Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair's Education site. He also runs the Profitable - False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

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Comments

8 Responses to “Stake right, lose less win more”
  1. Mark says:

    Hi Jonathan. You don’t mention % betting pot staking. I’m using it for laying & stake 2% of the pot. This year it has been increasing my returns by 1/2 points each month. Wondered what you thought? Also some stats info. around on the web which lets you estimate likely losing run based on return. Seems to be accurate as it predicts 2.5 to 3 losing runs once each year – this has happened both this & last year and painful though it is with laying at least there is some comfort! In fact both times we had decent winning runs afterwards. Cheers, Mark

    • Jonathan says:

      hi Mark
      thank you taking the time to contact me. You mentioned some interesting points about percentage betting.I did briefly mention this in another blog post regarding staking plans, although it was only brief. Hopefully I will be adding additional information about percentage betting in the near future.
      regards John

  2. DWOakley says:

    Thank you good article

    David oakley

  3. chabiraj says:

    What is the most important thing that shows a short price favourite will lose, despite all other cretira?

    • Jonathan says:

      there isn’t any one single thing unfortunately. There Needs to be a combination of lay factors present. Class can often outweigh many other factors, as outclassed horses rarely win. Poor trainer track form, and of course strong opposition is probably the most important factor, after all if a favourite faces weak, out of form opposition It has more chance of winning.

      Hope this helps
      John Burgess

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