Tuesday, June 25th, 2019

Profitable Jockey, Trainer & Race Course Micro Betting Systems To Follow

August 17, 2012 by  
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles

Big name jockeys are over bet by the punting masses, which means they`re unprofitable to follow blindly. In this betting tutorial we`ll teach you how to look for profitable jockey, trainer, race course angles, and also provide some micro betting systems to follow.

Most punters in the UK, seem to have a unhealthy obsession with backing jockeys even when they are riding horses which have a very limited chance of winning.

It seems to be a kind of betting folklore which passes on from generation to generation.

Obviously, jockeys play a vital role and their form must be considered when assessing a horses chance of winning a race.

After all confidence breeds success and inform jockeys sometimes defy the statistics by winning on a horse which seemingly looked to have no chance pre-race.

However this should be considered as the exception to the rule, that…

“You simply can’t make money backing  jockeys blindly”

 

If you bear in mind that jockey form is directly related to trainer form and the quality of the horses they ride you will avoid basing your decision to bet solely on the jockey.

“A .P. Mc Coy is the most prominent example of an over bet jockey. Punters literally back his mounts blindly”

 

Whilst it’s worth acknowledging that he is the most successful jumps jockey of all time. Betting is a game of skill and in order to make any long-term profits you must take an alternative view to the crowd.

Just because Big Bazza, his brother-in-law and the rest of ill informed betting shop clientele are lumping on the heavyweight jockeys it doesn’t mean you should! Remember these are the bookies favourite customer – they keep them in business.

The bottom line is when jockeys mounts are backed blindly by the masses the odds end up being so low that there is no value. It’s not the bookies we are betting against but rather fellow punters. I

n the long run, the odds end up being too short so there is no long term profit on the winners.

“Knowing when to back a jockeys mounts and when to avoid them is clearly a skill, however like any other skill it can be learned fairly easily”

 

To illustrate the point will take a look at the overall performance of A.P. McCoy since 2004. The statistics in the table below were compiled using horseracing base, and are based around the following criteria:

Jockey – A P McCoy

Race type –  hurdles, chases and National Hunt flat

Trainers – National Hunt (all)

It’s clear from the data in the table that backing all A. P. McCoy’s mounts blindly would make a huge loss of -987.76 points. However under certain circumstances the champion National Hunt jockey is profitable to follow. To identify these angles we have used the digger feature in horseracing base.

The table below outlines the most profitable trainer, race course combinations for A.P. McCoy since 2004. You can use these as profitable backing Micro betting systems.

A.P.Mc Coy profitable trainer combinations

For the layers, its profitable to oppose A.P. Mc Coy’s horses in class one and two races simply because these are very competitive from both a jockey and trainer point of view.

Other profitable jockey angles

Ruby Walsh is Another popular jockey over bet by the public.

Again looking at the overall performance of this jockey since 2004 clearly shows he’s been over bet by the punting masses. The statistics in the table below are based around the following criteria:

Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Race type –  hurdles, chases and National Hunt flat

Trainers – National Hunt (all)

It’s clear from the data in the table that backing or Ruby Walsh`s mounts blindly would make a huge loss of -688.70 points. However under certain circumstances this very talented jockey is profitable to follow. To identify these angles we have used the digger feature in horseracing base.

The table below outlines the most profitable trainer, race course combinations for Ruby Walsh since 2004. These can be used as profitable backing Micro-systems.

Ruby Walsh & Paul Nicholls profitable angles

Finally, Barry Geraghty is another popular jockey who makes a overall loss if followed blindly.  Backing all his rides since 2004 would have lost  -820.08 points.

However, just like A.P. McCoy and Ruby Walsh, if you back Barry Geraghty under certain conditions there are profits to be had, especially when riding for Nicky Henderson.

The table below outlines the most profitable trainer, race course combinations for Barry Geraghty since 2004. You can use these as profitable backing micro betting systems. Although, it’s worth ignoring small sample size statistics, such as the Noel Meade and SJ Mahon data shown below.

Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson profitable betting angles

Summary

Next time your looking for selections consider the jockey, but keep things in perspective. To help you we have put together a few guidelines:

# don’t bet on horse simply because it is accompanied by a top jockey (check out the trainers recent form, track form and how successful they are the type of race the contesting

# ignore racing media hype and the betting crowd

# carefully consider the race conditions and whether or not horses is suited to them

# don’t bet on horses being mounted by jockeys with low strike rates and poor recent form records (12% or less) consider these laying fodder, but only when value odds can be obtained.

# your key objective should be to identify a combination of good horses mounted by in form jockeys, sent out by trainers with proven record at the track.

# Learn more about the history and role of the jockey here…

Resources

Horseracing base is a fantastic tool for researching your own unique betting systems. Once you`ve identified profitable betting angles or systems you can set up HRB to send you the selections via e-mail each day, well in advance of racing.

 

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

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