How to really make a profit from Dutch betting

September 16, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles

There’s nothing more annoying than seeing your carefully selected favourite beaten into third place by other horses you considered – a more balanced and sensible approach is to spread the risk by Dutching more than one horse. Realistic profits can be achieved as long as the percentages are in your favour

What is Dutch betting?

It’s a multiple bet which covers a number of outcomes. Essentially you back more than one horse in a race using a single stake split evenly to cover all selections, so no matter which one wins you make an equal profit.

There is an element maths involved in working out the stakes, thankfully you don’t have to do this manually instead you can use a dutching calculator which works out how much to stake on each selection to ensure an equal profit no matter which one wins.

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

What are the best races to bet in?

Pretty much every day there are races where only two, or at most, three horses have any real chance of winning, the rest of the field are simply making up the numbers.

Using the three-step strategy below you will be able to regularly sort out which two or three the winner should come from, ultimately you`ll be learning how to reduce risk and maximise gains.

Having said that just because we can sort out the group of horses from which the winner is likely to come from, it does not automatically mean a profit can be made – this is only possible when the odds are in our favour.

There are many different opinions within the racing world about which races are best for Dutch betting, this is subjective and there are many different ways to back a number of horses in a race for profit. However the racing statistics below simply can’t be ignored and therefore in my opinion form the basis of the great dutching strategy.

Can the betting forecast provide clues?

Betting forecasts are put together by the bookies odds compilers based on various form factors. Many studies have been done to assess their accuracy. Remarkably these studies proved that the betting forecasts provided by the racing media were pretty accurate at predicting the shape of a race.

Therefore we must consider these professional assessments of the leading contenders in race as a good barometer of where the winners are likely to come from.

The following statistics show how the first three in the betting forecast performed across all three racing codes over a three-year period...

National Hunt racing

non-handicap hurdle 82% won
non-handicap Chase 80% won
handicap hurdles 66% won
handicap chases 73% won

Flat racing (turf)

conditions in stakes races two-year-olds 74% won
stakes in condition (older horses ) 80% won
handicaps all ages 58% won

All-weather racing

stakes and conditions races 81% won
handicaps all ages 66% won

The above statistics clearly show that a large percentage of winning horses come from the first three in the betting forecast in non-handicap races. It’s worth bearing in mind that these winning ratios will not be split evenly and second and third favourites combined will win more the first favourite.

Dutch Betting Strategy

Select non-handicap races only 7 to 12 runner races are best, exclude lower class races class 1-4 seem to produce the best results.
Include the favourite in the bet as a break even/saver bet, as long as the odds are reasonable
Make sure the profit margin on the whole bets is at least 25% of your overall stake money. For example if you stake £20 in total then the return should be around £5, although this does depend on the odds available (see example below)

Conclusion

This dutchting strategy can be consistently profitable if used correctly on the right type of races. However the foundation of any dutch betting strategy has to be based around favourable percentages in order for a profit to be achieved. As with any other betting strategy Patience and discipline are required to become successful.

This approach to betting can help you carve out consistent profits if a sensible, systematic approaches is employed.

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here

Tags: all weather racing, betting forecast, Dutch betting, Dutch betting strategy, dutching calculator, flat racing, horseracing, multiple betting, national hunt racing, oddschecker.com

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Comments

22 Responses to “How to really make a profit from Dutch betting”

Mark says:

October 13, 2011 at 6:30 pm

Jonathan

Thanks for the ‘dutching’ article last month. I’ve given it ago, stepping up stakes each week and showing a nice 12% return.

Great, and simple, strategy to sit alongside my lay betting.

Cheers, Mark

Reply
Declan says:

December 2, 2011 at 10:04 pm

jon / can one lay odds onn fav // and hedge by backing exacta / what per cent strike rate req to show profit over 100 bets

Reply
- Jonathan says:
  
  December 7, 2011 at 9:41 am
  
  hi Declan. To be honest having never tried this I can`t really answer objectively. maybe it is a question you could pose to the false favourites forum?
  
  Reply
marky G says:

December 8, 2011 at 9:16 am

Hi Jonathan,

Interesteing reading. I have a question though. The stats state 80% win rate for the non-handicap races etc. Wont this stat change when adopting the 25% profit rule? as most of the shorter priced favourite races wont end up being dutched as they will fal under the 25%…?

Thanks
Mark

Reply
- Jonathan says:
  
  December 9, 2011 at 10:32 am
  
  hi Mark
  
  Good point. When looking at races such as non-handicaps it’s worth assessing whether or not it’s worth backing the favourite exclusively. On occasions there will be favourites which have a really strong chance of winning, naturally this will be reflected in the odds, and in other instances the odds on the first Three in the betting market may be much closer, meaning the race is probably more suited to a Dutch bet. it’s all about using discretion really. Viewing each race as an island. Many pro punters will tell you that no two races are ever the same, therefore this strategy Needs to be viewed and implemented with a degree of flexibility.
  
  Cheers JB
  
  Reply
jan says:

February 25, 2012 at 8:46 am

say 80% strike rate, sounds good but what about the other 20%??? losing 20 times the full stake will surely not compensate for the other 80?

Reply
Mark Burton says:

April 13, 2012 at 6:41 pm

Hi Jonathan

Have been looking at dutching closely, I think the handicaps are better value – even though they don’t win so often. Most handicaps will return 100%+, non handicaps favs are usually much lower prices. IMO a return of 25% is not worth the risk.

Reply
- Jonathan says:
  
  April 14, 2012 at 8:11 am
  
  Hi Mark
  
  Yes, handicaps are where the value is. Although some can be a money drain, as they are far too open to DUTCH bet in. If you can indentify races with 3 standouts, and the rest of the feild are no hopers then your in business with a value dutch bet.
  
  Cheers Jon
  
  Reply
Easwaran-India says:

July 12, 2012 at 2:13 pm

Beloved Jonathan,
Greetings and i thank you for your wisdom , i am just beginning to get glimpses of success because of such a wonderful Master Sir Jonathan, yes i salute you for sharing these insights which are very rare and precious to me,thank you Dear, with love and immense gratitude
ishwaran
India

Reply
Lenny says:

August 11, 2012 at 12:58 pm

Hi

Is it all non-handicap races that this method works for or just stakes, what about nursery races and maidens, juvenile etc?

Thanks

Reply
- Jonathan says:
  
  August 11, 2012 at 5:22 pm
  
  Hi Lenny
  Maidens and juvenile are non-handicap races?
  
  Nursery races are handicaps for a certain age group
  
  The method can work on any race, but its best confined to those where the stats are in favour of the 1st 3 in the forecast.
  
  Cheers Jon
  
  Reply
steve says:

October 18, 2012 at 8:07 pm

Hi John.
This method of staking has come as a revolution to me. Your method of approach and using the dutching calculator is a great tool.
I`m in profit for once now thanks to you. If I back 2nd and 3rd favourites, using your criteria, and given the prices are ok to warrant each way betting on either and then they place I still get a great result or at least my money back. I think that 25% profit (per annum) is fantasic considering that the maximum you could only get get is 4% in other investments.
Cheers John.
Kind regards, Steve

Reply
- Joe says:
  
  August 5, 2013 at 12:39 am
  
  Steve, I am not sure what you mean. Can you clarify how many horses you are betting and what you mean by ‘each way’? Are you only betting the second and third favorites in a race? What kind of races? Dutching is only used for win betting; what do you mean by e/w and place?
  
  Reply