Grand National Verdict Plus Tips & Trends For Aintree Tomorrow
April 13, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments in red text for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)
The Aintree Festival, normally splits you into 2 camps, those that like horses that have run at Cheltenham and those that feel there horse is not suited by the undulations of Cheltenham and have therefore targeted Aintree. So in the Aintree races we’ve tried to see if there is a benefit of one method or the other.
| 1:45 | AINTREE | John Smith´s Mersey Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f BBC1 |
|---|
ODDS
15/15 priced at 20/1 or less
12/15 priced at 6/1 or less
FAVOURITES
6 winning favourites for a small loss
12/15 were in the 1st two in the market
TRAINER
Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times from 7 runners with a further 2 placed
AGE
15/15 aged 4 to 7
13/15 aged either 5 or 6
WEIGHT – N/A
LAST RACE
9 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 64 runners, 7 winners from elsewhere from 85 runners (Newbury maybe one to be wary of, as 7 runners and so far no places). If we narrow that down to fancied horses i.e. as above those priced 6/1 or less where there were 12 winners, 9 last ran at Cheltenham from 31 runners and 3 from elsewhere but just 9 runners so from a strike rate point of view not much in it.
14/15 were priced at odds of 12/1 or less
12/15 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 race
15/15 finished in the first six
14/15 ran 21 to 60 days ago
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had run 1 to 3 times in the last 90 days
Pretty strong stats for this race and if you factor in all the “red” criteria for the last 15 yrs you finish up with
|
Bets |
Wins |
WinStrike |
SP_PL |
Places |
PlaceStrike |
Races |
RaceStrike |
ROI |
|
22 |
11 |
50.00% |
14.96 |
18 |
81.82% |
15 |
73.33% |
68.00% |
| 2:15 | AINTREE | John Smith´s Maghull Novices´ Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m BBC1 |
|---|
ODDS
15/15 priced at 6/1 or less
FAVOURITE
5 winning favourites for a loss of -£1.96
8 winners were 2nd favourite for a profit of +£16.83
TRAINER
Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times from 17 runners with a further 6 placed too
Ferdy Murphy has won the race twice from just 3 runners
AGE
15/15 aged 5 to 8
LAST RACE
13/15 last raced at Cheltenham from 48 runners, just 2 winners from elsewhere from 57 runners. So Cheltenham looks to be the call but if narrowed down to the fancied runners priced 6/1 or less and 13 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 36 runners (Profit of +£10.03) and 2 winners from elsewhere from just 11 runners (Profit of £0.33) so again not too much in it on Strike Rate, but slight preference for Cheltenham on a profit angle.
13/15 ran in a Class 1 race
14/15 ran over a distance of 2 miles
13/15 were NOT favourite on their last start
15/15 finished in the first 3 (12 winners) last time out or fell (3 winners)
OTHER FACTORS
GB bred horses have a poor record with only one winner from 24 runners
Pretty strong stats for this race and again using the red criteria above for the last 15 races and you get
|
Bets |
Wins |
WinStrike |
SP_PL |
Places |
PlaceStrike |
Races |
RaceStrike |
ROI |
|
26 |
13 |
50.00% |
20.04 |
17 |
65.38% |
15 |
86.67% |
77.08% |
| 2:50 | AINTREE | John Smith´s Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f BBC1 |
|---|
ODDS
14/15 priced 5/2 to 20/1
FAVOURITES
Only 3 winning favourites for a loss of -£8.25
TRAINER
No real angle here although Irish trained horses have won the race 7 times from 36 runners, elsewhere 8 from 105 runners
AGE
No angle on ages
LAST RACE
11 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 98 runners, Elsewhere 4 winners from 42, however all those 4 winners last ran in Ireland from just 22 runners so one to keep an eye on possibly
No real strong angles on this race
Favourites have a poor record and are potentially worth taking on, if you can obtain value odds of no more than a maximum of 5.00 on your Lay bet.
| 3:25 | AINTREE | John Smith´s Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f BBC1 |
|---|
ODDS
12/15 priced at 12/1 or less
FAVOURITE
3 winning favourites for a loss of -£3.00
TRAINER
Paul Nicholls & Venetia Williams like to have runners in this race but they have both only run the race once from 13 runners each with only one more placed each too. Philip Hobbs is another who has run plenty with 12 runners and also just the one winner but a further 5 placed. Nigel Twiston Davies has had 9 runners and NO winners with just the one placed too.
AGE
13/15 aged 6 to 9
WEIGHT
12/15 including the last 11 winners rated 124 to 145
LAST RACE
8 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 82 runners, elsewhere it is 7 from 116 so slight preference for Cheltenham
14/15 were priced at between 5/2 & 20/1. All 17 that set off at 9/4 or less last time out have LOST
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had been placed in the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 runs
Again no real strong trends
| 4:15 | AINTREE | John Smith´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 4m4f BBC1 |
|---|
ODDS
12/15 priced between 13/2 and 20/1
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a profit of +£10.00
TRAINER
Donald McCain runners need serious consideration. Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race twice from 34 runners. Jonjo O’Neill has had 20 runners with one winner but a further 4 placed. Paul Nicholls however has had 48 runners with NO winner and only 3 placed. Philip Hobbs is another to be wary of, having had 17 runners, NO winner and only 2 placed, Ferdy Murphy 15 runners and only 1 placed.
JOCKEY
Ruby Walsh – 2 winners from 10 rides and 4 further placed
Barry Geraghty – 12 rides, 1 winner and a further 4 placed
Richard Johnson, Robert Thornton & Joe Tizzard have had 41 races between them but managed just one place
AGE
15/15 aged 8 to 12
12/15 aged 9 or 10
WEIGHT
Top 5 in the weights yet to produce a winner from 84 runners
15/15 carried 11 st 5lbs or less
14/15 carried 11st 1lb or less
15/15 rated 136 to 153
13/15 rated 138 to 150
LAST RA
3 winners last raced at Cheltenham but from 197 runners, elsewhere 12 winners from 380 runners(those that ran at Newbury, Chepstow & Sandown account for 72 of those and NO winner
96 last raced in Ireland but produced 5 winners by far the best Strike Rate but still making it hard to narrow down
The 10 winners that last raced in the UK ran in a Class 1 or 2 race
10 winners last ran in a chase race but from only 48 runners those that ran in a hurdle last time out have won 5 times, obviously protecting their handicap mark
15/15 ran 11 to 60 days ago
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 runs
15/15 had won at least one CHASE race
A race where you really do need to narrow down the field. If you take the criteria in red above, for the last 15 yrs, you get 9 winners from not too many runners :-
|
Bets |
Wins |
WinStrike |
SP_PL |
Places |
PlaceStrike |
Races |
RaceStrike |
ROI |
|
34 |
9 |
26.47% |
71 |
14 |
41.18% |
14 |
64.29% |
208.82% |
Our Grand National shortlist below don`t all necessarily follow all the trends, but we think these horses will run well and are well worth placing in a DUTCH bet, or if that’s not your style then simply back them Each Way.
- Giles Cross E/W
- West End Rocker E/W
- Ballabriggs E/W
- The Midnight Club E/W bigger priced punt
- Killyglen E/W
Look out for bookies paying out on 5 places such as….888 Sport and Blue Square.
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