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Free Betting Tips, Racing Trends & Statistics For (Saturday 2.2.2013) TV Races

February 1, 2013 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

Our FREE horse racing tips, betting advice, statistics and Trainer Trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing). The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races  each Saturday.

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TV raced trends for Saturday 2.2.2013

 

HEROES HURDLE

ODDS

15/15 20/1 or less

9/15 from the first 2 in the market for a profit of +£11.41

FAVOURTIES
AGE

15/15 aged 5 to 9

TRAINERS
Martin Pipe used to throw lots of runners at this race but had no success from 27 runners and only getting the 1 place.  His son David although a little less frequent with the runners is currently 0/4 for the race

On the positive side Paul Nicholls has had 3 wins from 9 runners with another 2 placed and Philip Hobbs has had 2 winners from 6 runners with another 3 placed

WEIGHT

14/15 carried 11st 3lbs or less

14/15 rated 142 or below

13/15 carried 10st 12lbs or less

LAST RACE

4 winners last raced at Kempton from 29 runners with another 5 placed

3 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 32 runners with another 6 placed

3 winners last raced at Ascot from 23 runners with another 1 placed

15/15 finished in the first 5 last time, strangely there were 35 runners that finished 2nd last time out but none went on to win this race, maybe having given their all they were also put up a few lbs which prevented the win

8/15 ran within the last 25 days

OTHER FACTORS
15/15 finished in the first 2 in at least 1 of their last 3 runs

13/15 has run at least twice in the last 90 days

There have only been 5 runners that had previously won over course and distance, 2 won and another 2 placed

 

SUMMARY

I quite like the feel of this race from a trends point of view as we should be looking for a horse aged 5 to 9.  I would also be looking at the horse carrying less than 11 stone and is in reasonable form, i.e. finished in the first 6 last time and also has a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 3 starts that also has a recent run under it’s belt.  If when you have narrowed them down they are trained by either Nicholls or Hobbs and are in the 1st two in the betting, all the better.

Sandown

2:25 Betfred Mobile Lotto Challengers Novices´ Chase (Registered As Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f110y CH4

 SCILLY ISLES CHASE

ODDS

15/16 priced 6/1 or less

FAVOURTIES

8 winning favs for a profit of +£4.31

TRAINER

Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times from 15 runners with another 4 placed
AGE

14/16 aged 6 or 7

LAST RACE
7 winners from 13 runners last raced at Cheltenham with another 1 placed

13/16 finished in the first 2

SUMMARY

We should be looking for a horse priced 6/1 or less that is aged 6 or 7.  Simply using those 2 factors, since 2007 would have given you every winner from just 11 runners for a profit of +£4.43 to a £1 stake.

 

Sandown

3:35 Betfred Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y CH4

MASTER CHASE

ODDS

15/15 priced 20/1 or  less

FAVOURITES

Just 2 winning favourites for a loss of -£6.60

TRAINER
Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners from 18 runners with another 5 placed

Philip Hobbs has had 2 winners from 10 runners with another 1 placed

Venetia Williams has had 12 runners but NO winners

AGE

15/15 aged 7 to 13

WEIGHT

15/15 carried 11st 6lbs or less, 38 horses have carried more and all lost though 7 did manage to place

LAST RACE

13/15 were priced 12/1 or less

10/15 finished in the first 3

2/15 raced in a Class 1 race from 45 runners

OTHER FACTORS

15/15 had won at least one chase

13/15 had finished in the first 2 in at least 1 of their last 3 runs

SUMMARY

Not quite as good as the Heroes Hurdle but still Ok in that we should be looking for a horse that has won at least 1 Chase race, finished in the first 2 in at least 1 of its last three runs & is carrying 11st 6lbs or less.  To narrow that down a bit further look at horses that started at 12/1 or less last time out.

 

Wetherby

3:20 totepool.com Towton Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f CH4TOWTON NOVICES CHASE

ODDS

10/11 priced 4/1 or less

FAVOURITES
7 winning favourites for a profit of +£1.59

AGE

11/11 aged 6 to 8

LAST RACE

5 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 6 runners

3 winners last raced at Warwick from 6 runners

10/11 finished in the first two or did not finish

9/11 started at 4/1 or less

SUMMARY

For me I would want a horse that is aged 6 to 8 that finished in the first 2 last time out and is priced at 4/1 or less.  I would definitely be interested in a horse that last raced at Cheltenham or Warwick.

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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