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ARCHIE SCORE: How to Check Your Selections True Chance of Winning

April 9, 2013 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

LUCK OR SKILL?

During your punting journey you might have heard about the Archie Score [AS].

It’s  a very useful and valid way of scoring selections to ascertain the probability of them being based on skill or based on chance.

In other words, do you have an edge or not?

If you came across AS before you might have decided it was too complex for easy reading. Or you were put off by the bit of maths involved.

In this article we will make it easy to understand and take you through baby steps to calculate the AS of your selections.

 

Why Is An Archie Score Important?

How good are your selections? To what extent are they based on skill? Or are they largely based on capricious chance?

The Archie Score will help answer those important questions.

They’re important because the more likely selections are based on chance then the less likely you can have confidence in them.

And, of course, the more likely your selections are based on skill then the more likely you can confidently invest in them with a definite edge.

The AS can be used not only on your own selections but also on selections from other sources – services, tipsters, market order and so on.

 

Archie Score Calculations

In real life the more selections you use in the calculations the mYOU WOULDN’T WANT TOore accurate the Archie Score

But in our simple example below we’ll consider only 6 selections for convenience.

 

Step 1

Firstly, to calculate the Archie Score [AS] we need to ascertain how many winners we might have expected from our selections based on chance alone.

To do this convert your selections’ odds or prices into percentage probabilities. Simply divide 1 by its decimal odds  Thus odds of 3/1 = 1/4.0 = 0.25 = 25%)

 

Decimal Odds

Probability Percentage

Selection 1

5

0.20 = 20%

Selection 2 Won

7.5

0.13 = 13%

Selection 3

10

0.10 = 10%

Selection 4 Won

2.5

0.40 = 40%

Selection 5 Won

2

0.50 = 50%

Selection 6

3

0.33 = 33%

Not too hard so far.

Step 2

Now we must ascertain how many winners we might expect from our six selections. Simply add up all the probabilities.

We now arrive at 1.66 as our number of expected winners for those six selections.

Step 3

Time now for the actual calculation  to give us the Archie Score:

 

runners x (winners – expectedwinners)²

____________________________________________________

expectedwinners x (runners – expectedwinners)

 

From our example we can easily see that:

  • Our runners =  6
  • Our Winners  = 3
  • Expected winners = 1.66

So we simply substitute our figures in the formula to work out the AS. (In case you’ve forgotten, always work out the brackets first)

6 x (3 – 1.66) ²

_________________

1.66 x (6 – 1.66)

Unless my maths is totally useless that works out to an approximate Archie Score of 1.50  (Or 1.4954 to 4 decimal places)

To work out the likelihood of chance determining our three winners we will now use a convenient lookup table.

Archie Score Likelihood Of Chance
0.30 58%
0.50 48%
1.00 32%
1.50 22%
2.00 16%
2.50 11%
3.00 8%
3.50 6%
4.00 5%
4.50 3%
5.00 3%
5.50 2%
6.00 1%
6.50 1%
7.00 1%
7.50 1%
8.00 1%
8.50 0%
9.00 0%
9.50 0%
10.00 0%
10.50 0%
11.00 0%
11.50 0%
12.00 0%

 

And, in red,  22% pops up.

That’s a reasonably low chance figure. But it would be far more accurate had we used more selections in our sample, of course.

 

Summary

Look, the bottom line of the usefulness of the AS is this.

The higher the AS, the less likely the selections are based on chance.

 So the more likely they’re based on skill to give you an edge.

Once you know the Archie Score of sets of selections from various sources then you know whether you should start using your own selections, whether your selection software is any good or from which tipster to buy selections.

If the Archie score is under 5 then you need more results to work out whether selections (or a system) are worth following, or if the results are based on luck.

 

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter


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Comments

4 Responses to “ARCHIE SCORE: How to Check Your Selections True Chance of Winning”
  1. Paul says:

    Hi, If you consistently got higher early prices than SP, or benefited from BOG, to what extent would the numbers be skewed?

  2. Jonathan says:

    to be totally honest, it would be difficult to give an accurate answer without testing those parameters for a reasonable amount of time.

    Although I would say any punter who consistently beats SP prices, in conjunction with a good selection system should make a long-term profit. Easy to say, naturally much harder to achieve. In reality.

    • Paul says:

      so for more accuracy then, the Betfair SP should be used to calculate the probability of winning, since it is regarded as a true reflection of those chances, rather than the price one actually gets. Would you agree?

  3. joerg neumann says:

    hi.
    would not a higher AS score mean there is a less likelihood of chance according to your table as your selections since i followed them to date have a AS score of 4.6 which would mean there is a 3.3% likelihood of chance and 96.7% of skill if i have read the article correctly.
    regards joerg

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